New Technology, New Market: Leading the Development of POCT Industry beyond Expectation [POCT Industry Deep Report]
POCT is the fastest growing sub-field in IVD field, which conforms to the future medical development trend and policy orientation. POCT refers to the rapid detection in the front line of clinical treatment, commonly known as "bedside detection", which can omit the complex processing procedures of sample detection in the laboratory and quickly obtain the test results. At present, the POCT market in China is about 8 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2022. The annual compound growth rate is 25%, which is the fastest growing sub-field in IVD industry.
This report differs from the market view:
1. The market only sees the rapid growth of POCT in clinical departments, but we judge that in the future POCT will play a more advantageous role in the emergency scenarios requiring rapid diagnosis and in the primary medical market requiring cost-effective. We calculate in detail in the report that, on the one hand, under the promotion of the policy of graded diagnosis and treatment and the five major emergency centers, with the comprehensive landing of graded diagnosis and treatment policy, the POCT industry in China is expected to add more than 12 billion yuan to the primary medical market. On the other hand, with the large-scale construction of the five major emergency centers, POCT will be in the city of emergency departments. Field space will add 10.3 billion yuan. POCT's growth potential exceeded previous expectations.
2. The market only sees the current technical level of POCT, so it considers that the ceiling of the industry is limited. However, with the gradual maturation of electrochemical, chemiluminescence and molecular diagnostic POCT technology, the industry will continue to grow for a long time, and the market potential needs to be further released.
1. The market space of POCT industry is higher than expected.
The main application scenarios of POCT industry in the past few years are in clinical departments. Roche, Abbott, Alere, the leader of the national POCT industry, and the leading enterprises of cardiovascular POCT in China, have mainly launched products in clinical departments through traditional channels. According to past market performance, Rncos predicts that the global POCT market will maintain a stable compound annual growth rate of about 10% from 2018 to 2022, while the domestic POCT market is still in the stage of rapid development in recent years, and the average compound annual growth rate is expected to remain at a high growth rate of 25% by 2022.
However, it must be pointed out that the 10% - 25% growth rate is based on the premise that POCT is the main application scenario for clinical departments. At present, the application scenarios of POCT at home and abroad are in clinical departments. With the gradual advancement of China's hierarchical diagnosis and treatment policy and the construction of five major centers, the primary medical market and emergency center, which are still in the primary stage, will become the main application scenarios of POCT in our country in the future. Its huge market space will be POCT for policy landing. Industry leads to large-scale volume. Therefore, the higher demand for POCT products and the broader market space mean that POCT will usher in higher growth rate and long-term sustainability in the future, and the ceiling of POCT industry will be more optimistic than the current market expectations.
2. The incremental space of POCT in primary medical market exceeds 12 billion yuan after the implementation of graded diagnosis and treatment policy.
After the implementation of the graded diagnosis and treatment policy, we calculated the volume of POCT industry in the primary medical market, and estimated that the market increment space will reach 124-25.8 billion yuan. According to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of China's Health Career in 2018 issued by the State Health and Health Commission, the service volume of primary health care institutions in 2018 was about 4.41 billion people, accounting for 53.1% of the total number of patients. The goal of graded diagnosis and treatment policy is to make the proportion of diagnosis and treatment in primary medical and health institutions more than 65% of the total amount of diagnosis and treatment, and basically achieve the goal of no County for serious diseases. We assume that the total number of clinics will remain unchanged at about 8.31 billion after the landing of graded diagnosis and treatment. The total number of primary medical treatment will reach 65% of the total, and the number of primary medical and health institutions will reach 5.32 billion.
At present, the proportion of patients in primary medical institutions is very low, and only 10% - 20% of primary medical institutions are equipped with POCT equipment. The scale of POCT industry in primary market is less than 1 billion yuan. According to the data of China Health Statistical Yearbook 2018 of the Health Planning Commission, the proportion of inspections in public first-class hospitals will be about 42% in 2017. We anticipate that the proportion of inspections in grass-roots medical institutions will at least increase to the level of public first-class hospitals after the policy of grading diagnosis and treatment falls into place. Based on the ex-factory price, we assume that the penetration rate of POCT at the grass-roots level will reach 10%/20% in the future, and the total scale of POCT industry in the grass-roots medical market will reach 134-26.8 billion yuan after the fall of the graded diagnosis and treatment policy, and the corresponding market increment space will be at least 124-25.8 billion yuan.
3. The construction project of the five first aid centers is expected to bring 10.3 billion yuan revenue increment to the industry.
Previously, the demand for POCT products was estimated after the completion of the construction project of the five first aid centers. It is expected that the number of the five first aid centers in the country will reach the planned scale and bring more than 10 billion increments to the industry, bringing more than 10.3 billion yuan in revenue growth.
According to the national policy document, all secondary and higher medical institutions will set up first aid centers in the future. In 2018, 1000 chest pain centers have been completed. It is expected that the scale of chest pain centers will reach 5000-6000 by 2024. According to the quality control briefing of the chest pain center in 2018, the average number of patients in the center is about 1196 per year. It is expected that the related POCT products will be equipped with cardiovascular detection reagents and instruments, blood gas analyzer and coagulation analyzer.
Chest pain center mainly uses the detection of myocardial damage markers (three cardiac items), as well as blood gas and coagulation detection. According to the cost and usage frequency of cardiovascular myocardium, preoperative pneumonia and other inflammatory factors, blood gas detection and coagulation analyzer, we calculated the unit price of each patient in the chest pain center is about 560 yuan per person, and the demand for POCT products brought by the chest pain center is about 4 billion yuan.
Assuming that the five centers are similar, the number of other centers and the number of patients are estimated by statistics and incidence. It is estimated that the total volume of stroke centers is about 400 million yuan, the total volume of trauma centers is about 3.5 billion yuan, the total volume of critical pregnant and parturient centers is about 1.3 billion yuan, and the total volume of critical neonates is about 1.3 billion yuan. The total volume brought by the center is about 1.1 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2024, the five first aid centers will bring about an annual revenue increase of about 10.3 billion yuan for all POCT manufacturers.
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